GOLD Short To Medium Term Forecast :

GOLD Short To Medium Term Forecast : GOLD Trading in COMEX (Spot) at 1596.65 USD.

Technical Resistance :- 1597$-1607$-1625.33$.

Technical Support :- 1581$-1564$-1555$-1545$.

Last Hope :- 1534$,below this level a free fall or Bloodbath would be expected.

Target Intact :-1480-1440-1400=1385-1375=1325-1300USD (Say Next 2-4 Months).

GBPUSD creates scope for more declines towards its March 2009 low.

The British Pound maintained a very narrow range in between the 1.4320 to 1.4526 after bouncing back from a fresh yearly low of 1.4240 on last week. A revised version of the GDP data will be published today, it is forecasted at around 0.3 percent, and previously it was 0.2 percent. Also in this week there are other major events which may shake the Pound, now at a lower level. The British Pound continues to fall as concerns remain high that U.K. will be unable to handle its massive debt, and also the Europe’s financial problem is also pressuring on British Pound.


Last week’s higher than expected CPI figure has more pressure on the GBPUSD pairs that is the GBPUSD spent its most of the last week trading below the 1.4500 mark. Currently this pair is trading in dangerous phase – any negative news from the U.K would this pair go down upto 1.42 to 1.400 range.

Yesterday the key data on existing U.S Home Sales was published, a leading indicator of economic health. Previously it was 5.35 M. The latest release from National Association of Realtors said that sales of existing home sales rose 7.6 percent to a adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million unit in April, the economy showed signs of recovery. This indicates positive sign for U.S dollar.

On May 25, 2010 Adam Posen, a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is going to speak about the monetary policy .Most of the investors are very much interested what he is going to make the policy about the interest rate and about the general economy.

Britain economy is very badly affected from last one quarter; previously Britain grew its economy only by 0.2 percent in the first quarter. The second data is expected better than previous a growth rate of 0.3 percent. If the data is as forecasted then the Pound will be in a rocking mode. The BBA Mortgage Approvals data is published today. Along with this the Britain will publish quarterly data on its GDP.Last time this data was 34.9 K now it is forecasted at 37.6 K which has medium positive impact on Pound.

On May 27, 2010 CBI Realized Sales published at around 3.30 Pm of Indian Time. It’s a leading indicator of consumer spending .This is a survey of about 160 retail and wholesale companies which ask responds to rate the relative level of current sales volume. It is forecasted that there will be a small rise from 13 to 14 this time.

On May 28, 2010 Gfk Consumer Confidence, its survey of about 2,000 consumers which is expected to show a little bit less than previous that is previously it was drop to -16 , now it is forecasted at -15 points. Also the data called Nationwide HPI published this weekend which is forecasted increase by 0.5 percent this time.

From technical point of view, the major resistance at 1.4772, followed by 1.5126. The second most resistance for GBPUSD is at 1.5392.

The fresh 2010 low of 1.4240 is the immediate support. For GBPUSD the stronger support at 1.3930.The ultimate support level for GBPUSD is at around 1.3487, which the lowest level seen in over 20 years as you can on the chart.

For long term view for GBPUSD, this pair is in bearish movement from 1.7040 (Aug, 2009) expected to fall upto 1.4000 area to reach next bearish cycle on monthly chart.

Have A Very Happy and Profitable Trading Ahead !!

EUR/USD rebounds from the lower level 1.2143 hits the weekly high at 1.2671.

Euro recovers from the four year low at 1.2145 on Wednesday extended higher today Eur/Usd at 1.2671.From past four sessions, all the commodities and equities continued their sell off dragging the Euro Lower. From last night on Wednesday the Euro rose biggest weekly advance more than 9 months against the dollar, on the optimism European Union officials meeting today .In this meeting they are going to take the decision on the region’s debt crisis.

Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan said that it’s undesirable for currencies to stay from “stable “levels. The Euro touched a four –year low on May 19, has gained around 2 percent after the announcement from European Union of 750 billion bailout packages for Euro zones. German officials announced ban on short selling so it was negatively affected on Euro zone.

While today is the major data coming from German .The data called German Ifo Business Climate. The data is forecasted 101.9, previously it was 101.6 its leading indicator of economic health – business reacts quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment. If the data is coming as the prediction the euro goes in a green otherwise it will go down

As per the technical point of view Eur/Usd having resistance level at 1.2672 and the second resistance 1.2853. On the other side the Eur/Usd having major support at 1.2334 and the second support level at 1.2137. If the Eur/Usd breaks this second support level then there is no hope upto 1.2064level.

Have A Very Happy Trading !!

Nifty Comparison Between 2008-2010, Nifty May Target 4870-4855

The above sheet is showing the comparison between the Nifty movement from 2008-2010. Now nifty is close last week as the same as closed at 09 May,2008. So Nifty follows the trends. Also history repeats again.

Weekly Nifty Trend :    

• Bearish black candle breaking and closing below the trend line from March 2009 lows.
• Volumes were good and breadth very negative.
• Oscillators are weak below the 50 level and macd is once again in sell mode.
• Trend line support at 4814 

Daily Nifty Trend : -

• Fall continuously on all days of the last week on increasing volumes and extremely bad breadth.
• 61.8 % fibo support at 4955 of rise from 4675 . 
• Oscillators weak and stochastics in oversold zone in positive divergence.
• Taken support on trend line from 3918. Must trade above 4990 for a bounce from the trend line.
• 200 dema at 4880 coinciding with the 50% fibo level of rise from 3918  and the 200dsma is at 4962 almost coinciding with 61.8% fibo level of rise from 4675.

The nifty has fallen sharply for the last 5 trading days without respite.The daily and weekly oscillators are weak and indicating further fall. The intraday charts though are showing positive divergence and very minor bullish patterns which could develop into a small bounce.Strong supports at 4960-4955-4880 supports this possibility.

Trade above 5046 is necessary for further bullishness.Resistance is at 5150.

The trend is down and one should look for opportunities to short on rallies.

Happy Trading !!

Dipak Sharma

sdipak83@sify.com
9372486367