GBPUSD creates scope for more declines towards its March 2009 low.

The British Pound maintained a very narrow range in between the 1.4320 to 1.4526 after bouncing back from a fresh yearly low of 1.4240 on last week. A revised version of the GDP data will be published today, it is forecasted at around 0.3 percent, and previously it was 0.2 percent. Also in this week there are other major events which may shake the Pound, now at a lower level. The British Pound continues to fall as concerns remain high that U.K. will be unable to handle its massive debt, and also the Europe’s financial problem is also pressuring on British Pound.


Last week’s higher than expected CPI figure has more pressure on the GBPUSD pairs that is the GBPUSD spent its most of the last week trading below the 1.4500 mark. Currently this pair is trading in dangerous phase – any negative news from the U.K would this pair go down upto 1.42 to 1.400 range.

Yesterday the key data on existing U.S Home Sales was published, a leading indicator of economic health. Previously it was 5.35 M. The latest release from National Association of Realtors said that sales of existing home sales rose 7.6 percent to a adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million unit in April, the economy showed signs of recovery. This indicates positive sign for U.S dollar.

On May 25, 2010 Adam Posen, a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is going to speak about the monetary policy .Most of the investors are very much interested what he is going to make the policy about the interest rate and about the general economy.

Britain economy is very badly affected from last one quarter; previously Britain grew its economy only by 0.2 percent in the first quarter. The second data is expected better than previous a growth rate of 0.3 percent. If the data is as forecasted then the Pound will be in a rocking mode. The BBA Mortgage Approvals data is published today. Along with this the Britain will publish quarterly data on its GDP.Last time this data was 34.9 K now it is forecasted at 37.6 K which has medium positive impact on Pound.

On May 27, 2010 CBI Realized Sales published at around 3.30 Pm of Indian Time. It’s a leading indicator of consumer spending .This is a survey of about 160 retail and wholesale companies which ask responds to rate the relative level of current sales volume. It is forecasted that there will be a small rise from 13 to 14 this time.

On May 28, 2010 Gfk Consumer Confidence, its survey of about 2,000 consumers which is expected to show a little bit less than previous that is previously it was drop to -16 , now it is forecasted at -15 points. Also the data called Nationwide HPI published this weekend which is forecasted increase by 0.5 percent this time.

From technical point of view, the major resistance at 1.4772, followed by 1.5126. The second most resistance for GBPUSD is at 1.5392.

The fresh 2010 low of 1.4240 is the immediate support. For GBPUSD the stronger support at 1.3930.The ultimate support level for GBPUSD is at around 1.3487, which the lowest level seen in over 20 years as you can on the chart.

For long term view for GBPUSD, this pair is in bearish movement from 1.7040 (Aug, 2009) expected to fall upto 1.4000 area to reach next bearish cycle on monthly chart.

Have A Very Happy and Profitable Trading Ahead !!